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What we learned from the Conference on Financial Sector Development in African States Facing Fragile Situations? - Part 1

19.07.2016Amadou Sy, Director of Africa Growth Initiative, Brookings Institution

Last month, leaders from the public and private sectors and development partners gathered in Abidjan to discuss the links between fragility, resilience and financial sector development in Africa. This event, a joint initiative created by the African Development Bank, the Making Finance Work for Africa Partnership (MFW4A), FSD Africa, FIRST Initiative and the Initiative for Risk Mitigation in Africa (IRMA), also provided an opportunity to explore prospects for partnerships, innovative policies and private sector-led solutions to accelerate financial sector development in fragile situations in Africa.

In this first instalment of a six-part series, Amadou Sy, Senior Fellow and Director of the African Growth Initiative, Brookings Institution, looks at some of the major takeaways of the conference.

What is fragility?

Using a "harmonized definition," the African Development Bank (AfDB), the Asian Development Bank, and the World Bank classify states as being fragile when they exhibit poor governance or when they face an unstable security situation. For practical purposes, governance is measured by the quality of policies and institutions (states with a CPIA score less than or equal to 3.2) and insecurity is assessed by the presence of United Nations or regional peace keeping operations (PKO). In sub-Saharan Africa most fragile states are also low-income countries (LICs).

While the focus of the "harmonized definition" is on institutions and insecurity, participants stressed that fragility is a multi-faceted concept. In particular, fragility implies weak state institutions, poor implementation capacity, underdeveloped legal and financial infrastructure as well as low social cohesion and the exclusion of a large share of the population from financial and other services. The nature of fragility is also fluid and fragile states face situations ranging from violent conflicts to post-conflict economic recovery. The sources of fragility go beyond poor governance, low GDP per capita, and conflicts to include vulnerability to commodity shocks and other macroeconomic shocks, and exposure to the risk of pandemics.

The need to broaden the definition of fragility was further explored with reference to a quote from President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia "fragility is not a category of states, but a risk inherent in the development process itself". Mr. Sibry Tapsoba, Director of the Transition Support Department of the AfDB argued for a multidimensional approach, which applies a fragility lens to (i) look beyond conflict and violence; (ii) focus on inclusiveness and institutions; (iii) recognize the importance of the private sector; and (iv) recognize the presence of asymmetries in resources, policy, and capacity.

Participants also insisted on the need to go beyond the negative connotation of fragility and recognize instead that fragile states are in transition and present opportunities for human and financial sector development.

What role for financial sector development (FSD) in fragile countries?

Empirical evidence points to the positive role that financial sector development (FSD) can play in fragile countries. There is a positive correlation between financial sector and economic growth, poverty reduction, and inequality reduction. FSD can be a driver of growth through increased job creation and it can help mitigate risks through increased savings, loans, and insurance.

A key finding stressed by Ms. Emiko Todoroki, Senior Financial Sector Specialist at FIRST Initiative is that fragile countries fare worst in all macro and financial metrics, except one: the share of adults with mobile accounts. Digital financial services are offering solutions in fragile states and there is a need to understand better their role.

In the same vein, Ms. Thea Anderson, Director at Mercy Corps argued for the need to focus in on micro issues such as the role of delivery channels, payments infrastructure, insurance, and blended finance (including impact investment), and Islamic finance. As she noted, FSD is relevant even in the more volatile security situations. For instance, refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) can be viewed as a market segment and their financial inclusion can be kick-started with the use of functional identification (which also help comply with Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements). Mr. Paul Musoke, Director of Change Management at FSD Africa also highlighted the role of markets and market building in a difficult context. He noted the need to look for scale, sustainability, and systemic change. As markets are dynamic and not predictable, taking a systems approach can be useful. Such an approach includes asking questions such as what factors are going to play a role in the future? Who is going to pay for infrastructure? What level of development should we target?

Lastly, Mr. Cedric Mousset, Lead Financial Sector Specialist, World Bank reminded the audience that governance remains a key dimension of fragility. Weak governance in fragile countries exposes them to a higher risk of non-compliance with regulations such as anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML-CFT) regulation. Improving governance, although it may be a slow process, is needed to support FSD. Measures to support political stability, improve the business and macroeconomic environment, ensure legal security, and build capacity remain important.

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You can download all the presentations on the conference website.

You can also view a selection of photos here.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Valere Nketcha Nana
Email :p.nketcha-nana[at]afdb.org

Abdelkader Benbrahim
Email: a.benbrahim[at]afdb.org

Gravatar: Weselina Angelow, WSBI

Boosting access to formal financial services for village groups: A case study on linkage banking in Uganda

08.06.2016Weselina Angelow, WSBI

How do we reach out when 85% of the unserved population lives outside recognized urban centers? Many Ugandan banks now offer mobile money links to group accounts, and many offer credit facilities too. The WSBI Programme and PostBank Uganda (PBU) wanted to sustainably offer both: encourage active individual savings for group members and provide efficiency gains through an attractive loan offer to the entire group.

The WSBI- PBU Programme was set out to capture the big bulk of money moving around in small amounts in Ugandan villages. We were looking for something less expensive than mobile money for very local, extremely low value domestic transaction activities and from small balance, but regular savers.

WSBI's own calculations suggested that roughly $10 million per day must be moving around in small villages of Uganda. What a fortune for a bank's deposit base if it was able to tie up with village groups! The amounts being saved are not trivial. Up to $10 per group member per month are possible in Uganda. Moreover, the frequency of transacting is relatively high, given that 40% of users of informal groups transact weekly or daily.

PBU in 2012 started to put in place a dedicated team for promoting the idea of linkage banking for village groups. That team included a chief executive with a vision and a good deal of gut feeling, an experienced linkage banking manager, dedicated village banking field officers, motorcyclists to get out regularly to the groups, motivated regional branch managers and tailored savings and loan products. PBU's Java- enabled software used for mobile banking was adapted to replicate the triple lock on the cash-boxes village groups normally use to control access.

A "zero" tariff was introduced to provide free weekly deposits and withdrawals matching the group meeting cycle. It contributed to keeping value in a closed loop (member to group, group to member and member to member) and earning the bank a significant margin. The monthly ledger fee was dropped, although aggregator push-and-pull charges continued putting some financial burden on group members, currently at 7 U.S. cents per session for a max of USD2.50 per transfer from e-wallet to mobile account. Sub-accounts were created electronically for the different savings goals of a group. PBU's low-cost VSLA Group Account was born.

Findings

The impact was startling. Within a year 5000 groups with almost 150,000 members had signed up and group accounts were staying 95% active. Something interesting was happening: PostBank's retail customer base was growing and the active portion was growing fastest. At the same time, PostBank's funding base was growing with the bottom-end driven by individual accounts and the top-end by group accounts. The growing funding base led to an imputed income of more than USD 400,000 by end of 2014.

By late 2015, the bank had signed up 28,000 groups[1] with more than 500,000 members. By then, PBU also had an active overall customer base of almost half a million accounts with 60% of these active, small-balance accounts with an average balance of around $35 increased six-fold since PBU started working with the groups. The big number of small-scale savings coming from the groups brought in valuable funding and a reduction in fixed costs per client.

PBU's goal is to have groups and their individual members constitute 50% of the bank's business by 2018. The bank's journey towards customer centricity will continue to depend on channel and product innovation. With the Central Bank of Uganda's approval of the new agent banking regulation, the groups are becoming potential agents, multiplying PBU's customer acquisition points for serving the mass market and generating additional income for the groups and their members with a particular focus on youth and women. With a redesigned, technology-driven youth product in place, PBU has just started stretching its linkage offer to other 475 youth groups under a newly established partnership between PBU, Airtel and Care Uganda. The most recent product innovation encourages female household members to join the bank by offering an individual "women in progress" account attached to the group account.

 

[1] PBU works with CARE (40% of the PBU group base), IRC, NUDIPU, AVSI, IFDC as well as several local self-help and farmer groups.

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About the Authors

Weselina Angelow is part of WSBI (World Savings and Retail Banking Institute)'s global efforts to providing an account for everyone and making a contribution to universal financial access. She manages the WSBI Programme for making small scale savings work, a Programme run with WSBI member banks worldwide.

Esther Mututta Ssenoga is a Senior Manager for Linkage Banking & Special Segments at Post Bank Uganda (PBU). She's currently supporting PBU's relationship-based banking and group-based models to achieve a wide customer base and customer numbers.

Gravatar: Weselina Angelow, WSBI

A journey in making small scale savings work

18.04.2016Weselina Angelow, WSBI

By the end of 2020, all 110 WSBI members set an ambitious plan. They aim to reach 1.7 billion customers and 400 million new transaction accounts by then. The work really kicks off this year, starting from a base level of 1.4 billion people who seek banking services from WSBI members every day.

It's news in a way, but it's also part of an evergreen story - WSBI's longstanding commitment to provide an 'Account to Everyone'. Twenty-five focus countries under the Universal Financial Access (UFA) need to address this most. We've set out through our member savings and retails banks to tackle the issue of the unbanked and underserved in 17.

Financial inclusion matters to an increasing number of players. With support of a sponsored Programme WSBI in 2008, wanted a fundamental question answered: what would it take to boost financial inclusion through the WSBI network of postal and savings banks? Driving WSBI's member support today to achieve the next set of UFA 2020 goals means taking lessons from this work on board.

The WSBI Programme aimed to increase formal savings services for poor people at 10 WSBI member banks across the globe. Active accounts swelled within five years from 1.2 million in 2008 to 2.8 million in 2015 in six of ten selected countries generating deep insights into the drivers and barriers of account usage.

Regular active account usage turned out to be much more difficult than first thought and account dormancy remained an elephant in the room. The core of the challenge was threefold: affordable pricing and low population densities put limits to the banks for providing a sustainable and accessible solution, plus there was a growing need to offer more convenient and intuitive services. Questions arose that demanded an answer. Two especially came to mind.

1. How do we add value to the way rural people already manage money informally?

Linking formal banking to village groups and replication the way people already manage money emerged as the most successful route to meet rural peoples' financial needs and close the proximity gap in remote Eastern Africa. Most of the cash in East Africa stays in villages, in a lot of places money circulates just within one kilometer of people's home and work, a member of a group would save $5-10 per month. Linkage banking with village groups became an arena to capture these high turnarounds of financial transactions and nontrivial amounts of savings.

WSBI member Postbank Uganda (PBU) adopted linkage banking in 2012: it linked its mobile banking platform not just to village groups but also to individual group members. PBU reaches out to 28,000 village groups so far. Without distorting the group model, PBU found a way to electronically replicate and link up with the group's existing savings and loan business. The result: a growing funding base and a threefold increase in PBU's active customer base.

2. How can segmentation of client data help us to predict people's' transactional behavior and address sustaining account activity after account opening?

Having a shared meaning of what defines an active account is paramount. WSBI's definition was any account that transacted in the previous six months. The Global Findex data shows a third of all adults doing any kind of saving during one year right up the development spectrum. Could it therefore be that customer's desired savings behavior to save occurs in bursts of activity followed by a quiet period before starting again and how much time passes between these periods?

WSBI member Kenya Post Office Savings Bank (KPOSB) developed an analytical model for the better understanding of the drivers of account activity. Together we looked at the periods when clients would normally reengage with the bank after a first contact has been made and whether getting messages out to clients by using local options could nudge their behaviour.

Trust in financial services offered to the unbanked an underserved depends hugely on the ability of service providers to invest time and resources into continuously gaining insights into the financial lives of the poor and translate these into convenient services. This takes time and can be costly, and it makes small-scale savings work much easier said than done. It's a journey where learning is a continuous process. Our newly produced video report highlights what bumps and discoveries we have found along the way.

Mapping Out the Future for Rwanda's Capital Markets

21.03.2016Jacqueline Irving, Director & Jim Woodsome, Senior Associate, Milken Institute

How should Rwanda develop its capital markets? This was the subject of a three-day roundtable discussion held last October in Rubavu, Rwanda. The roundtable was organized by the Rwanda Capital Market Authority (CMA) and the Milken Institute's Center for Financial Markets (CFM), with support from FSD Africa. Highlights from that discussion, including points of consensus and debate, are captured in the Milken Institute's new publication, "Framing the Issues: Developing Capital Markets in Rwanda."

Over the past decade, Rwanda has made considerable progress in achieving rapid economic growth and reducing poverty, supported by sound macroeconomic policies. Its business-friendly environment is now among the best in Africa. The government and its international development partners view deepening and diversifying the domestic financial system as essential to Rwanda's goal of transitioning to middle-income status.

Last year, the Rwanda Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning gave the CMA a mandate to produce a 10-year Capital-Market Master Plan (CMMP) to guide reforms to develop Rwanda's capital markets. An overarching goal will be to deepen capital markets so that they intermediate long-term finance for private-sector-led growth and meet the country's infrastructure and other socioeconomic needs.

The October strategic planning roundtable kick-started the process of mapping out capital-market reforms. The event gathered policymakers, regulators, issuers, investors, and capital-market experts from around the world, including senior officials from the government of Rwanda. The roundtable provided an off-the-record forum for frank and in-depth discussion about the opportunities and challenges Rwanda's capital-market stakeholders face, as well as how they can prioritize and sequence reforms. Participants also heard firsthand how other developing countries mapped out and launched their own capital-market reforms.

The roundtable covered core questions that will inform the drafting of Rwanda's Capital-Market Master Plan, including:

 

  • How should Rwanda develop its investor base, both domestically and regionally? What are innovative ways to mobilize household savings?
  • Can other nonbank financing sources-such as private equity, financial leasing, and even crowdfunding-help "incubate" firms for future listings?
  • How can Rwanda strike the right balance in accessing needed foreign-portfolio investment while guarding against risks of overreliance on this investment?
  • How can capital markets in Rwanda and its East African Community partners take a regional approach to attracting new listings?
  • Should the stock exchange target small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in its outreach for new listings-and, if so, how?
  • What can Rwanda learn from other countries about the process of planning and implementing capital-market reforms?

Roundtable participants strongly agreed that an immediate and ongoing priority is for Rwanda to develop a pipeline of prospective listings. Targeted outreach -including education and technical assistance - is critical to increasing the number of firms willing to list. Cultivating a high-growth-potential corporate base could also serve as an incubator for future listings, as would developing the local venture capital and private equity markets.

 

Lessons shared by participants from other emerging markets underscored the importance of sequencing and developing capital markets to complement the banking sector, not compete with it. As an economy grows and becomes more complex, firms and households require a wider range of financial services - from banks as well as other financial intermediaries. Once larger firms begin to rely more on capital markets for longer-term financing, banks may increase lending further down the credit spectrum, to SMEs and households.

Well-functioning, appropriately regulated local and intraregional institutional investors are vital to developing a stable investor base. Several participants flagged the need to mobilize small savers across EAC markets, perhaps through a regional fund, which also would advance financial inclusion. The role of non-EAC foreign investors was more heavily debated, however - particularly the degree to which bond issuers should rely on foreign capital.

Regionalization emerged as a key cross-cutting issue. More cross-border listings and cross-border investment across the EAC's securities exchanges could help overcome local capital markets' impediments such as illiquidity, low market capitalization, and few listings. Greater cooperation across EAC capital markets in developing and sharing market infrastructure and intermediation services could unlock significant economies of scale. Throughout the roundtable, participants returned to the point that capital-market development should not be done for its own sake, but to spur growth of a diversified, inclusive economy that creates decent jobs and improves living standards. And, while best practices exist, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to developing capital markets.

This blog post was originally published on the Milken Institute's blog website. 

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About the Authors

Jacqueline Irving is a Director in the Center for Financial Markets at the Milken Institute. Previously, she was a senior economist at US Treasury, responsible for the migrant remittances and financial inclusion portfolio and a U.S. government delegate to the G20's technical working group on remittances.

Jim Woodsome is a Senior Associate, Program Research Analyst at the Milken Institute's Center for Financial Markets. In this role, he conducts research, organizes events and helps manage initiatives related to the Center's Capital Markets for Development (CM4D) program.

International Transmission of Shocks via Internal Capital Markets of Multinational Banks: Evidence from South Africa

30.11.2015Adeline Pelletier, Assistant Professor, Instituto de Empresa

It is well documented that global banks contribute to international shock transmission via cross-border lending. Yet, global banking has taken another form over the recent decades with the expansion of banks abroad via branches and subsidiaries. This expansion has especially happened from and to developing and emerging economies, as countries have opened up their banking sector to foreign investors (Claessens and van Horen, 2012).

Multinational banks operate internal capital markets through which they (re-)allocate capital between their headquarters and their different foreign affiliates in response to financial or real economic shocks. In developing countries where interbank and capital markets are underdeveloped and a large part of the population is unbanked, the ability to receive funding through internal capital markets at low cost and in large quantity might present a significant advantage for foreign banks' affiliates. However, as internal funding reallocation can alter the funding position of a bank's affiliate, this may in turn lead to adjustments in foreign affiliates lending in their host market, thus creating another channel of international transmission of shocks (Cetorelli and Goldberg, 2012).

Impact of a financial crisis on capital re-allocation inside banking groups

In a recent study, I explore this issue by using a novel database on banks operating in South Africa, which includes information on internal loans and deposits from and to the banking group.

In exploring the impact of the 1997 East Asian Crisis on capital re-allocation inside banks, I found that that South African affiliates belonging to banking groups with high exposure to East Asian Crisis countries (in terms of total banking assets of the group in crisis countries) experienced a significant drop in their net internal funding position during the crisis, relative to South African affiliates of less exposed groups. The South African foreign affiliates of highly exposed multinational banks both received less internal funding from their group during the East Asian Crisis period than before, and lent more to their group, relative to the affiliates of less exposed groups. This result suggests that parent banks of more exposed groups reallocated capital away from South Africa to support their affiliates in east Asia.

Exploring the link between internal capital funding and domestic lending

Do foreign affiliates that receive internal capital from their group expand their local bank credit? Using an instrumental variable technique, I found that a 10% increase in the outstanding volume of internal funding resulted in a 5.6% increase in the volume of mortgage advances. As such, foreign affiliates do not only use this extra capital to acquire government securities or to invest abroad, as it has been reported in Africa where banks are often highly liquid but lend relatively little domestically (see Beck, Maimbo, Faye and Triki, 2011).They also "pass it on'' to the local economy by expanding their domestic lending.

Policy implications

This study suggests that foreign affiliates have ambiguous effects for the financial stability of the host country. On the one hand, being part of a foreign group reduces the risk of bankruptcy of foreign affiliates by allowing for the reception of internal capital from the group.

On the other hand, internal capital markets are a channel through which financial crises are transmitted from one country to another, when abrupt capital reallocations inside the group take place. However, the strength of this channel will partly depend on the legal structure of the foreign affiliate. Indeed, the organisational form of the foreign affiliate, either as a branch or as a subsidiary will have an impact on the stability of the banking sector and the local supply of credit through the internal capital market channel, as branches are more integrated to their group via this channel than subsidiaries.

A potential policy implication of this research for bank regulators may be that favouring organisation of foreign affiliates as subsidiaries rather than branches, through specific banking regulations, may reduce the potential transmission of foreign crises via internal capital markets. One caveat, however, is that if a banking crisis occurs in the host country, a parent is fully responsible for all losses incurred under a branch structure. Under a subsidiary structure, a parent's obligations are only limited to the value of the invested equity, which makes it more likely to walk away from the operation (Cerrutti et al., 2007; Fiechter et al., 2011). That said, if a foreign affiliate has systemic importance for the health of the banking group, its parent is more likely to support it through transfers of internal liquidity, regardless of its organisational form.

Bibliography:

Beck, Thorsten, Samuel Maimbo, Issa Faye, and Thouraya Triki. 2011. Financing Africa: Through the crisis and beyond. Washington DC: World Bank.

Cerutti, Eugenio, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria. 2007. “How banks go abroad: Branches or subsidiaries?” Journal of Banking and Finance 31 (6):1669-1692.

Cetorelli, Nicola and Linda S. Goldberg. 2012. “Liquidity management of U.S. global banks: Internal capital markets in the great recession.” Journal of International Economics 88 (2):299-311.

Claessens, Stijn and Neeltje Van Horen. 2012. “Foreign Banks: Trends, Impact and Financial Stability.” Working Paper WP/12/10, IMF.

Fiechter, Jonathan, Inci Otker-Robe, Anna Ilyina, Hsu Michael, Andre Santos, and Jay Surti. 2011. “Subsidiaries or Branches: Does One Size Fit All?” IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/11/0, IMF.

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This blog post is based on the MFW4A Working Paper Series "Internal capital market practices of multinational banks: Evidence from South Africa".

Adeline Pelletier is an assistant professor at IE. She was previously a postdoctoral researcher affiliated to the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, researching mobile payment services for the unbanked. She obtained her PhD in Business Economics from the London School of Economics in 2014, with a thesis on the performance, corporate financial strategy and organization of multinational banks in Africa. Prior to her doctoral studies she completed a MPhil in Development Studies at the University of Cambridge (2011) and she also holds a MPhil in Economics from Sciences-Po Paris (2006).

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