Africa Finance Forum Blog
Currently the posts are filtered by: February 1
Reset this filter to see all posts.
When we talk about Africa’s infrastructure finance gap it is easy to be pessimistic. I am not. I am an optimist.
Some see the gap as a problem, a major challenge. But while I agree this finance gap is a challenge, I see it primarily as an opportunity – an opportunity for the private sector to maximise returns on their investment in what is a nascent market.
The highly-regarded Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic study (don’t be put off by the title) recently concluded that an annual investment of over $90 billion is required over the next ten years if Africa is to bring its infrastructure to the levels of other developing regions of the world.
About half of these investment needs are currently being met through official development assistance, foreign private sector investment and, often overlooked, domestic investment from within Africa. In fact, the African taxpayer is the biggest investor in African infrastructure. So it is not all gloom.
African governments are not only committing public resources to infrastructure development. They are also creating an economic environment that encourages private sector investment – micro-economic reforms, institutional reforms, efficiency improvements – alongside a commitment to improved corporate and economic governance. Further, enabling legislation for effective public-private partnerships (PPPs) is also being introduced.
These improvements might not be consistent across all of Africa’s nations, but they will certainly continue. And this improving climate will increase the opportunities for private sector involvement in Africa’s infrastructure sectors.
The pessimists say that Africa is too risky for investors. Yet we know that no investment is without risk, in any part of the world. Indeed, the belief that investing in Africa is a higher risk than in other regions is a myth. A recent study by the ratings agency Moody’s, which analysed project finance loans in Africa over 20 years, found that only one of the 92 loans defaulted.
What about rates of return? Africa is an emerging market, so returns are high for those who invest early. Many privately financed infrastructure projects in Africa are seeing returns that compare well with other parts of the developing world.
Africa’s infrastructure finance gap is the result of demand and real growth -- demand that comes from Africa’s recent solid growth. Some countries in Africa have seen double-digit growth and Africa is now one of the world’s fastest growing economies, with GDP growth rates that are often at par with China and Brazil. That growth produces demand – for power, for water, for transport and for communications. Projects in all of these areas are bankable.
Even the recent economic downturn has shown that Africa is not the economic basket case some would like to believe it is. Across Africa, real GDP grew by 5% from 2000 to 2008. Hitting a peak of $1.56 trillion in 2008, the financial crisis brought Africa’s collective GDP down to $1.4 trillion in 2009. The negative impact was therefore not as great as in other parts of the world. Importantly, Africa’s growth is built on solid foundations and is rebounding. 2010 finished with growth at 4.5% and economists expect growth to reach 5% in 2011.
Ultimately, it seems we, the optimists, have both the facts and the figures in our favour. If you are an investor, you can’t ignore Africa. And you can’t ignore infrastructure. You will want to back a winner.
Mr. Hassan is the Coordinator of the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa (ICA) Secretariat housed by the African Development Bank in Tunis, Tunisia. He holds an MBA in International Banking and Finance from the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom and a Masters Degree in Economics from François Rabelais University in Tours, France. He has 18 years of experience as a Financial Analyst and Investment Officer in the infrastructure sector.